How Much is Enough? Estimating Requirements for Subsidized Contraceptives: Results from Ten-Country Analysis

This study challenges the widely cited estimate by Dr. John Ross et al (1997). Ross estimates that by 2015 there will be a $210 million dollar annual shortfall in donor funding for contraceptives - assuming the commercial sector's market share remains constant. Dr. Sine presented a new set of estimates based on assumptions that government and social marketing programs target their programs to the poor, and that the commercial sector will meet the contraceptive needs of those clients who are able to pay. He then analyzed ten countries -- representing regions where the most donated contraceptives are supplied -- and found that these assumptions decrease the size of the projected donor shortfall by 43 percent.